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Home Value Forecast

Home Value Forecast: Housing Crises’ Hardest Hit Communities Bouncing Back

Each month, Home Value Forecast uses a number of leading real estate market-based indicators to report on activity in the single-family home markets in the top 200 metropolitan areas (CBSAs) in the U.S., and reports on the Top Ten.

The Top Ten

Our Top Ten ranking system at HVF is purely objective and is based on directional trends. It’s not a listing of what markets are most expensive or most in need of inventory — it ranks market momentum at a specific point in time. The Top Ten metros for the May include mostly communities on the rebound:

Chico, CA is a perfect example of a community rebounding after the dramatic impact of the housing crisis. For four years approximately one of five houses sold was a Real Estate Owned (REO) sale. The good news is that as of today, that number is down to less than 1%.

REO properties sell for a discount, and for Chico the discount has averaged around 20%.

During the crisis, when one in five homes was selling at a 20% discount, the entire community felt the downward pressure on pricing, as can be seen in the average sale price graph below. With fewer REO properties (1 sale out of 100), the market has rebounded to today’s record highs.

Interested in learning more about the top metros featured in this month’s market report? Contact us for more in-depth information on each CBSA listed in this month’s report.


The Home Value Forecast uses a ranking system that is purely objective and is based on directional trends of nine market indicators. Each indicator is given a score based on whether the trend is positive, negative or neutral for that series. For example, a declining trend in active listings would be positive, as would an increasing trend in average price. A composite score for each CBSA is calculated by summing the directional scores of each of its indicators. From the universe of the top 200 CBSAs, each month we highlight topics and trends in the real estate market.